Raw milk prices in Ukraine have been demonstrating a downward trend since February. April will not be an exception. The expected decline in the Infagro index will be 9 points (4.2%) to March, which is 32 points (18.4%) higher than in April 2016 – INFAGRO

The actual Infagro Raw Milk Index has made 215 points in March (the level of preliminary forecast), which is 6 points (2.7%) lower than in February. The projected index for April is 206 points, which is 9 points (4.2%) lower than in March and 32 points (18.4%) higher than in April of last year.

Despite a fairly sharp March decline, milk purchase prices were on the forecast level.

According to actual data for March, the Infagro Dairy Commodities Index made 216 points (preliminary forecast was 207 points), which is 6 points (2.6%) higher than in February. The projected index for April is 203 points, which is 13 points (6.0%) lower the index in March and 39 points (23.8%) higher than in April of last year.

Unlike February, when exporters focused on sales of “cheap” SMP, in March there was fixed a record export volume of cheese-like product, which affected the growth of index (volume effect) as well as the deviation from the preliminary assessment. These jumps in the short term will not impact the accuracy of forecast of the Infagro Raw Milk Index (as seen above).

The Infagro Raw Milk Index is a weighted average price for kilogram of milk from farms (without VAT) and households, related to delivered volumes for processing for each category, taking January 2011 as 100 points.

The Infagro Dairy Commodities Index is a weighted average of actual export prices and volumes of three main products: SMP, butter, cheeses (cheese-like product is included into volumes together with cheeses, but not included into price indicator). January 2011 is taking as 100 points.

INFAGRO