Shortage of raw milk in Ukraine, as it was predicted by scientists of the Institute of Agricultural Economics, in 2019 led to the growth of imports of all types of dairy products.

Global food market has adequately and promptly responded to a shortage of raw milk in Ukraine and filled it with ready-made dairy products with high added value.

According to the Customs Service of Ukraine, over the 12 months of last year, the following products were imported:

• condensed milk and cream – 3598 tons, or 2.7 times more compared to the corresponding period of 2018

• condensed milk – 2564 tons (1.1 times more)

• fermented dairy products – 6467 tons (1.3 times more)

• whey – 3185 tons (1.5 times more)

• butter – 34 506 tons (3.1 times more)

• cheeses – 23724 tons (1.7 times more)

• ice cream – 392 tons (1.3 times more)

• casein – 106 tons (1.5 times more than in January-December 2018)

The value of imports of dairy products increased from $66.3 million in 2017 to $f152.2 million in 2019, that is, 2.3 times.

Ukraine still is a net exporter of most types of dairy products, but negative trends in the market for this type of products are constantly increasing.

Shortage of raw milk has already resulted in a decrease in production of dairy products.  Whereas the level of their consumption, taking into account the new data on the population of Ukraine at 37.3 million people, is most likely higher than the officially calculated figures. The unmet demand for cheese has shown a negative balance of foreign trade over the past three years.  Next in line is butter.

Lack of effective mechanisms to stimulate the development of dairy industry in Ukraine will lead to a further increase in volume of imports of dairy products, weakening domestic producers of dairy products, and subsequently to dependence of the domestic market on dairy products.