OLGA KOZAK, IFCN Representative in Ukraine, Lead Researcher NSC “Institute for Agrarian Economics”: Forecast of milk production in Ukraine until 2030

According to calculations made by the scientists of the NSC “Institute for Agrarian  Economics”, milk production in Ukraine will continue to decline providing the existing trends in dairy industry remain the same.

In 2018 the volume of milk production amounted to 10,064.0 thousand tons. By 2030 the volume may decrease by 12.3% – down to 8830.0 thousand tons.

Over the next decade, the largest decline – by 31.1% – is expected in households.  But agricultural enterprises will increase milk production from 2755.5 thousand tons in 2018 to 3797.6 thousand tons in 2030, or by 37.8%.

Moreover, it is predicted that by 2030, enterprises with a livestock of up to 500 cows will increase milk production by 11.4%, and with a livestock of more than 500 cows – 1.6 times.  The latter in 2030 will produce 68.5% of the volume produced in agricultural enterprises and 30% of total production of milk in Ukraine.

According to scientists of the NSC “Institute for Agrarian Economics”, the number of cows in Ukraine in 2030 may shrink by 756.3 thousand heads – more than a third (-37.5%) compared with the figures for 2018.

The largest reduction in livestock – by 46.7% – is expected in households.  In agricultural enterprises with livestock of up to 500 cows, herd will also decrease by more than a quarter (-26.4%).  Even if the number of livestock in large-scale farms – with a livestock of more than 500 cows – increase (+9,1%), it will not be possible to break the general negative trend in the dairy industry.

Compared to 2018, cows productivity will increase in the future by 40.4% in all groups of farms and on the level of the country will be 7000 kg per cow per year by 2030, including: 6083 kg in households, 7713 kg in enterprises with a livestock number up to 500 cows and 9320 kg per cow per year in enterprises with a livestock of more than 500 cows.

The proposed scenario is a realistic forecast of milk production for the period up to 2030 consideting that conditions for functioning and support of the industry remain on current level. The methodology of calculation and forecast is described in the new publication of the NSC IAE “Forecast of milk production in Ukraine until 2030: methodology and calculations”, by O. Kozak, O. Grishchenko, O. Vasylchenko.

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