Belarus and Kazakhstan did not close in unison with Russia the borders for European and even (supposedly) for Ukrainian products.
Now the domestic exporters hope for increase of deliveries to these countries. Belarus will completely concentrate on export to Russia. It probably will sell almost all milk powder and butter and will considerably increase sales of cheeses. The own needs will be supplied by imported products, mainly from Ukraine. And their re-export to Russia under grey schemes will probably take place.
There will be not enough Belarusian milk for Kazakhstan. It will be switched over to Ukrainian alternative. The same situation will be with other CIS countries.
At the same time nothing compensates the loss of Russian market for Ukraine. The situation will be complicated, even considerable reduction of cattle number is probable by the winter. The alternative sales markets are not entered. It will even more difficult to do that, as Europe will occupy them. Even purchases of butter and milk powder by Agrarian Fund still have no logic end, and the summer already comes to an end. Payments were not done, and the Fund may be closed soon, as the Ministry of Agrarian Policy is dissatisfied with its work.
In general, this autumn will be difficult more than ever for Ukrainian dairy industry.