The next round of considerable devaluation of UAH was the key February event for Ukrainian operators of dairy market. Exports of some dairy products became favourable again considering stability of the milk prices.
The situation is favourable for producers of milk powder, casein and whey powder. Export prices for these goods became much higher than domestic. At the same time there is an external demand for the products.
Changes are also positive for farmers as demand for milk will increase, and it means they can hold milk prices when the first seasonal increase of supply occurs.
At the same time the devaluation is very unfavourable for producers of dairy products for the domestic market. Milk prices will not fall, so, it is necessary to further increase the prices for fresh milk products and cheese. But considering in stable decrease of purchasing power of Ukraiian consumers sales of these products will drop. In the past such situation would be favourable for cheese makers, but they still have not found the alternative to Russian market.
And it seems Russia does not plan normal trade with Ukraine at all.
Unfortunately, the activity of Ukrainian milk operators comes to export of milk powder, casein, butter as it was in the 90th. There should be no problems with sales of milk powder (though at not expensive prices, the products will be sold to Asia and Africa), but it will be extremely difficult to sell expected big surpluses of butter. After all, in the 90th, most part of butter was exported to Russia.
Unfortunately, the European market will not play a key role in Ukrainian dairy trade and China is not hurrying to open access to its market, as the government promised …
Anyway, it is impossible for Ukraine to not export at all. 1 mio t of milk have to be exported in 2015. Otherwise the cow slaughtering should be increased.