In my opinion, Ukrainian processors will not procure raw milk from Europe, at least in the coming years. One reason is that raw milk is a demanding product, it should be delivered to processing facilities in a very short time lapse. Given the time needed for the customs control at the border, this is a big risk that the product may possibly lose its quality.

The second reason is the price. Despite the current record low prices in the EU, only Lithuanian and Latvian milk price (~ 18 cents) is competitive with the price of Ukrainian milk. Poland, as well as neighboring countries  – Romania and Hungary – offer higher price (~ 22-24 cents). That is Ukrainian milk is still cheaper than European.

But the increase in imports of dairy commodities, primarily cheese and butter, is very likely this winter when traditional seasonal reduction in milk production will occur and therefore, milk prices will grow.