Ukrainian raw milk market shows minimum prices in June, but the prices level is much higher than last year

The actual Infagro Raw Milk Index made 201 points in May (preliminary forecast was at 200 points), which was 5 points (2.0%) lower than in April and 34 points (20.4%) higher than a year ago.

The projected index for June is calculated at 199 points, which is 2 points (1.0%) lower than in May and 37 points (22.8%) higher than in June of last year.

Milk market has practically reached the minimum price in May, in June slight adjustment is expected due to reduction of prices for milk from households. At the same time, the prices for milk from agricultural enterprisers remain stable this month. The trend will probably change in July, because the index of commodity products will show growth.

According to actual data for May, the Infagro Dairy commodities Index made 205 points (preliminary forecast was at 198 points), which was 4 points (1.9%) lower than in April. The projected index for June is 199 points, which is 6 points (5.2%) down from index of April and 54 points (35.6%) higher than in May of last year.

Increase of actual index of commodity products (against forecast) was influenced by total growth of export prices in Ukraine and in the world. Additionally, it was difficult again to forecast the shares of separate products in the total volume of export: despite increase of price for SMP, in May the Ukrainian exporters could settle sales of cheese product after problems in April. Therefore it was more favorable to produce and export cheese product and butter, than to dry milk.

Prices of milk powder have strengthened even more in June, therefore volumes of its export are expected to grow in comparison with May, and the index will decrease (because SMP is cheaper in comparison with other products).

The Infagro Raw Milk Index is a weighted average price for kilogram of milk from farms (VAT excluded) and households, related to delivered volumes for processing for each category, taking January 2011 as 100 points.

The Infagro Dairy Commodities Index is a weighted average of actual export prices and volumes of three main products: SMP, butter, cheeses (cheese product is included into volumes together with cheeses, but not included into price indicator). January 2011 is taking as 100 point

Latest news: