Now the world produces 876 million tons of milk. The dairy industry serves more than 7 billion consumers and provides a livelihood for 1 billion people involved in dairy chain.
The world forecast for the development of the dairy industry was made public by the IFCN Dairy Research Network during the 19th International Dairy Conference, which was held from 9-13 June 2018 in Cork, Ireland.
The world requires more milk. This is not only due to population growth, but also due to the increased consumption of milk and dairy products and growth of welfare and investment in development of dairy industry and products. Milk production in 2030 will reach 1168 million tons. The demand for milk will be covered by its large production.Data of the IFCN Dairy Research Network
Structural changes in dairy industry will continue, and the farms will be intensifying their production systems. In the context of regions, the largest increase in production is expected in South Asia – by 64%, Africa – by 36%, Latin America – by 33%. The smallest increase will be in Western Europe – by 14%.
As for the number of dairy farms, in the next 13 years it will have decreased down to 104 million, or 15.6%. The world average dairy farm will be of 4 cows size, which means the increase of 29% from the current size. High concentration of production will grow in North America, 82%, and Asia, 65%, and go down in Africa (6%).
The vast majority of countries will increase milk production, world milk production and demand will grow by 35%, but Ukraine is among those few countries where milk production will decline:
Data of the IFCN Dairy Research Network
For the dairy economists of our country, the long term decline in milk production is obvious. The main reasons for this are the decline in production in the households and the low growth rate in large-scale dairy farms, although the level of concentration and specialization in this category of milk producers is constantly growing.
So, farms of 500 cows or more keep 43.5% of the total number of livestock in agricultural enterprises and produce 65% of milk. Since 2010, this group of farms has increased milk production by 53%. The economic efficiency of such farms is consistently high. However, production of milk by these farms is only 15.2% of domestic demand.
Despite the forecast reduction in milk production in Ukraine, there will be no milk deficit because of the decrease in population and the drop in milk and dairy products consumption during the crisis period of the last three years.